🎬 Trend Overview
Overview
Trend uses historical data to help you pressure test your forecast call and identify potential areas of risk. Executives, Managers and Sales Ops want to know how things stand for the current quarter compared to the past:
- Are we ahead or behind on closed deals compared to the same time over the past four quarters?
- Given how much we typically close from various forecast categories, how much can we expect to close this quarter?
- How much business can we create and close within the quarter? Or how much business can we pull in from a future quarter?
- What did our pipeline look like on a particular day in the quarter/month compared to prior quarters/months?
- What did the projection and pipeline look like on a particular day in the quarter/month?
- What were our historical conversion rates and performance on a particular day of the quarter/month?
- Based on historical data, what might future performance look like for a quarter/month? Select a (Note: we do not display a projection/pipeline for CQ when selecting a day in the future).
Note: Data might be different in Analyze visuals (Pulse, Waterfall, Funnel, Flow, Trend) versus data you see when you drill down into the Opportunities Module. This usually happens because in the Opportunities Module, Clari queries Salesforce and gets live data, but in Analyze, data refreshes every 15 minutes.
In this article, you'll find:
- Trend Analyze Overview
- Navigation
- Clari Projection
- Filters & Settings
With Trend, you can easily compare where you are today (what you’ve closed plus your inventory of open deals for the quarter) to the same point in time over the past four quarters.
Here are just a few ways you can use Trend:
- Compare how much you’ve closed to date in the current quarter compared to the same time last quarter (STLQ) and the quarters prior through the same time last year (STLY).
- Review Clari’s projection for how you’ll finish the quarter. The projection leverages your historical performance to predict your final number for the quarter.
- Review historical conversion ratios by forecast category or stage and how many new deals (either newly created or pulled in from a future quarter) came in and closed.
Navigation
a. Date Range Parameter: You can choose to view data for the current and previous 4 quarters or the current and previous 3 months.
b. Scope: Use the Scope to navigate to different levels in the Salesforce Role Hierarchy.
c. Filter & Settings: Adjust the Filters that are being applied and the Settings (such as the amount field used for the aggregations).
d. KPIs: The KPIs provide a high-level overview of the data in the graph. Read more about Trend KPIs
here.
e. Current Inventory of Deals & the Clari AI Projection: You'll see your inventory of deals for the time period selected (current month or current quarter) and the AI Projection for where you're going to finish by the end of the period. Read more about the AI Projection here.
f. Historical data from the same time in previous periods: You'll see the inventory of deals you had at the same time in the previous periods and how you converted those deals by the end of the period. Typically the inventory of deals will be broken down by Forecast Category or Stage depending on your configurations and the settings you've applied.
g. Historical data details: All of the data in the chart is represented in the table below.
Select Date in Trend
Now, you can use this feature to analyze a specific day in the current quarter or month and compare your selected day to the same day in prior quarters.
Note: When comparing 2 quarters that do not have the exact same number of days, Trend determines the ‘same day of the quarter’ according to how many days are left until the quarter ends (not how many days into the quarter you are).
Here's the logic on that note above, in case you're curious:
How Clari determines Same Time Last Quarter:
1. Clari gets the Start and End day of the last quarter from the Fiscal Period
2. Then, Clari calculates the offset days = Current quarter end Date - Requested AsOfDate
3. Same Time Last Quarter date = lastQuarter end date - offset days calculated in step 2
And not all quarters have the same number of days (Ya know, February 👋) . So let's say the current quarter has 91 days and the previous had 93; then Clari would match Day 49 of the current quarter with Day 51 of the previous.
Example
LQ End Date is 03/31/2023
CQ End Date is 05/30/2023
You selected Today (let’s say that’s 05/15/2023) for the As Of Date in the drop-down.
LQ End Date is 03/31/2023
Offset Days = 05/30/2023 (CQ End Date) - 05/15/2023 (As Of Date)
Same Time Last Quarter = 03/31/2023 - 15 = 03/16/2023
03/16/2023 is considered the Same Time LQ as 05/15/2023 because there are the same number of days remaining in the quarter on 5/15/2023 (Day 76 of Q2) as there were remaining in the previous quarter on 03/16/2023 (Day 75 of Q1).
Use Cases
- Understand what the pipeline looked like on a particular day in the quarter/month compared to prior quarters/months.
- Get insight into what the projection and pipeline were on a particular day in the quarter/month.
- Review historical conversion rates and performance on a particular day of the quarter/month.
- Select a future date in the month/quarter to see the historical performance (Note: we do not display a projection/pipeline for CQ when selecting a day in the future).
How To Read the Chart
The chart should be read in conjunction with the table. Remember that the data for your previous four quarters begins on the left, and your current quarter is displayed on the far right.
Let's deep dive into some of the data in the chart and the table below:
- Closed to date, current quarter: Value of won deals with a close date in the current period selected (current quarter or current month) as of today.
- Clari Projection: Clari’s projection for how much you’ll close by the end of the quarter. When you hover over each segment of the bar, you'll get more information on that segment. See below for additional details.
- Inventory of open deals: Open deals with a close date in the current period selected as of today.
- Closed to date for that period: Value of deals won at the same time last quarter or month. At the same time last quarter, what did you already close?
- Inventory of all deals for that quarter: Value of deals that were open at the same time last quarter or year. At the same time last quarter, what did you have in Commit, Best Case, etc.?
Hover your mouse up and down the rows in the chart to highlight the corresponding pipeline data for all deals and closed won amounts in each forecast category.
In the example below, the mouse hovers on the Commit row, and the pipes highlight your conversion history of Commit deals at this point in the past four quarters.
Note: In the example, the close ratios of deals that were in Commit at the same time in previous quarters have increased in the past year.
In addition to the rows for your various forecast categories (or stages, if you choose to break down your pipeline by stage), you'll also see a few other categories:
New: Opportunities that were created and closed within the quarter.
Pulled-In: Opportunities that had a Close Date in a future quarter that was changed to the current quarter at that time.
Pushed-In: Opportunities that had a Close Date in a previous quarter that was changed to the current quarter at that time.
Ownership Change: Opportunities with an owner in Salesforce in your scope, but the owner of the opportunity changed to someone outside your scope (or visa versa).
Other: Opportunities that do not match any of the other categories. For example, these could be opportunities that were pulled in and changed ownership.
The tool tips show you the breakdown of the deals in each category compared to the close ratios for the deals you closed by the same time last quarter or last year.
Columns
- Amt: Dollar value of deals closed.
- #: Number of deals closed.
- Avg: Average deal size of deals closed.
Rows
- Closed to date: Looks at the deals closed to date since the start of the current fiscal quarter.
- STLQ: Looks at the deals closed at the same time last quarter and shows how this quarter compares.
- STLY: Looks at t the deals closed at the same time last year and shows how this quarter compares.
Color Coding
- Red: Current quarter is behind.
- Green: Current quarter is ahead.
Clari Projection
The Clari Projection uses the previous close ratios and trends to determine how many deals from each category will close this quarter, including how many new deals will likely be brought in.
- The algorithm looks at the percentage of won deals by forecast category and the number of new deals that came in by the end of the quarter and were won for the past four quarters.
- The ratios and expected new deals are calculated at both the individual user or team levels in the hierarchy.
In the image below, Clari projects as of this point in the quarter that your organization will close 78% of deals in Commit for a total of $8.1M, based on how many deals typically close in Commit from this same point in time in the prior quarters.
Clari enhances the Projection accuracy by applying machine learning and optimizing the algorithm used for each Clari customer.
For more information, check out our article on How the AI Projection Works.
Example
Let's walk through what the data shows for last quarter and the current quarter.
- In All Deals for this quarter, Clari is reporting a total of $49.7M in open and closed opportunities. This compares to the same time last quarter when the team had a total of $45.7M in open and closed by this time in the quarter.
- For each forecast category or stage, the "Closed" shows how much was closed from that category of the total open in that category at the same time in the quarter.
- By the end of last quarter your team closed a total of $38.9M; Clari is projecting that your organization will close $41M by the end of this quarter. This includes new opportunities closed during the quarter.
Note: The ratios for the current quarter will change every day as the quarter progresses. The closer it is to the end of your quarter, the more your close ratio is likely to increase.
Filters and Settings
Above the main chart is a Filter Menu, which allows you to select specific criteria to refine your data. The Chart and Table data will dynamically adjust based on your selection(s).
Consult your Clari Customer Success Manager to make any additions to the choices in this panel.
Filters
- Use the Scope to navigate to different levels of the Salesforce Role Hierarchy. As soon as you select a node or a user, the data in the Chart will automatically update.
- Add Filters and the data in the Chart will automatically update.
Settings
- You can modify your settings by selecting the dropdown for the different options along the top.
- Alternatively, you can click the Edit button and make adjustments.
Setting options include:
- Amount: You can select different currency fields to use for the aggregations.
- Breakdown By: You can select different picklist fields to breakdown the data in the Chart and the Table. Most often you will use Forecast Category and / or Stage.
- Overall Forecast: To overlay the data from the Forecast module, you need to select the Forecast Tab from which you want to pull the data.
- Date: You have the option to use a different date field other than the Close Date.
To add additional options to any of these settings, please talk to your Customer Success Manager.
